How big a blow for Qaddafi is the defection of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa? Does this mean the regime is crumbling? Will it trigger more defections?
High-level defections are always a serious blow to a regime in danger. First of all, there are certain factors that need to be taken into consideration to understand how great the fallout could be. A defection can have a variety of effects depending on the rest of the loyal group. Defections tend to be more accepted if people share a common sense of reality than if people do not. Also, defections are perceived negatively by the hardcore group if they seek status quo and reject change. In the case of Libya, it is important to keep that in mind. Arguably, the people that have stick with Gadhafi are believers, hence have a little sense of reality and do not want the status quo to be jeopardized. It may have the unexpected effect of strengthening the core rather than weaken it. Besides, contrary to many in the Gadhafi’s close circle, he is not a family member. Further defections could be expected, but Kusa had the unique privilege of being able to leave the country for professional reasons, which allowed him a way out. It is far too late for anyone too close to Gadhafi to defect to the rebels without being killed on the spot.
His defection may bring the coalition some invaluable information. First of all, he was the head of the Intelligence services for fifteen years until 2009, so he has a deep knowledge of the regime capabilities. Second, he knows the players, the sensitivities, which could be valuable for intel services to trigger negotiations with those people or for diplomatic initiatives to target those people.
